It isn’t SILENCE …

Written By Melissa Heffernan

3rd Ave Edit – September Issue

Market Snapshot

The story this month isn’t silence, it’s movement. More homes are changing hands, and here’s why:

In Simcoe, the number of homes sold in August ticked up by just over 3%, even as average prices slipped nearly 11%. Buyers are re-engaging, but with a sharper eye on affordability. Sellers are still getting deals done, but only when the strategy matches the market.

So what does this mean if you’re thinking of making a move? For buyers, more choice and softer prices mean you can shop with less pressure and negotiate with confidence. For sellers, demand is still there — but it takes the right price and preparation to stand out.

This Fall’s Market Drivers: What’s Slowing Demand, What Could Spark It

  • Affordability | With the average MLS price near $680,000, many first-time buyers are getting priced out. Big down payments and higher long-term costs are making people pause.

  • Trade tensions | Almost half of would-be buyers are holding off because of U.S. tariff uncertainty. A resolution could flip the market quickly, but no one knows when.

  • Economic cooling | Slower job growth, population shifts, and a mild recession are keeping demand more cautious.

  • Rental options | A flood of new condo completions means more rental choice (and softer rents), reducing the urgency to buy.

  • New builds slowing | Builders are pulling back on starts as demand eases and material costs climb. CMHC projects only 226,600 new homes this year.

Rates and Buyers This Fall

  • Rates on hold (for now): The Bank of Canada hasn’t cut since April, but another drop is still expected before year-end. Fixed rates are already lower than projected, making this a strong window for new mortgages or renewals.

  • Variable rates still appealing: With the chance of a further cut, variable remains an option buyers are watching closely.

  • Resale homes are leading: Between 464,600 and 524,600 homes are expected to change hands this year, showing steady activity.

The Bottom Line
We’re in a wait-and-see market, but here’s the reality: buyers have more choice right now and borrowing costs are better than they’ve been in a while. For sellers, resale homes are where the action is — get the strategy right, and you’ll find your buyer.

Melissa Heffernan
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